Okay, with 5 remaining I've figured out what I need to happen in order to win. Most of it at least.
The best I can do with Aurora and Laura is tie them. First of all, the winner has to be either Paris or Taylor. Then Chris must finish either 4 or 5 and Elliott must finish between 3 and 5. If that happens, it's a three way tie. If those scenarios happen, I'm pretty sure that Mom and Caleb could not catch me. Dad's picks, however, are so incredibly different than mine that just about anything could happen, within that scenario, and either one of us could beat the other. So I didn't figure out the possibilities for beating Dad because it was way too complicated. Maybe next week. I do know that since I have Taylor 7 and Dad has him at 5, no matter where Taylor goes I get a +2 above Dad. However, That can easily be made up for if Elliott can survive one more round, or if Paris leaves this round. Overall there are I think 120 possibilities for the final 5 rounds. I really ought to be able to figure out the probability of that 3 way tie scenario but I don't think I'm doing it right. I think it might be a 1/10 probability. So it's not looking very good.
If anyone wants to bet, I'll take Laura and you can have the field. She is the overwhelming favorite, all five Idols being equal. Laura is one point ahead of Aurora, but Laura's minimum score for the remaining contestants is 2, while Aurora's is 5. Mom's minimum is also 5, Luke's and mine is 6, and Caleb's is 8.
6 comments:
Who even sayyys harlot these days?
I am the besttttttt.
Okay, with 5 remaining I've figured out what I need to happen in order to win. Most of it at least.
The best I can do with Aurora and Laura is tie them. First of all, the winner has to be either Paris or Taylor. Then Chris must finish either 4 or 5 and Elliott must finish between 3 and 5. If that happens, it's a three way tie. If those scenarios happen, I'm pretty sure that Mom and Caleb could not catch me. Dad's picks, however, are so incredibly different than mine that just about anything could happen, within that scenario, and either one of us could beat the other. So I didn't figure out the possibilities for beating Dad because it was way too complicated. Maybe next week. I do know that since I have Taylor 7 and Dad has him at 5, no matter where Taylor goes I get a +2 above Dad. However, That can easily be made up for if Elliott can survive one more round, or if Paris leaves this round. Overall there are I think 120 possibilities for the final 5 rounds. I really ought to be able to figure out the probability of that 3 way tie scenario but I don't think I'm doing it right. I think it might be a 1/10 probability. So it's not looking very good.
Okay nevermind I figured it out. The chances of that three way tie are 2/15. That's 13.3 percent.
If anyone wants to bet, I'll take Laura and you can have the field. She is the overwhelming favorite, all five Idols being equal. Laura is one point ahead of Aurora, but Laura's minimum score for the remaining contestants is 2, while Aurora's is 5. Mom's minimum is also 5, Luke's and mine is 6, and Caleb's is 8.
I think she's supposed to be a minx, not a harlot.
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