Tuesday, October 13, 2009

The Standings

After the first round, Caleb is in the driver's seat with four points. Colin, Luke, Laura, Mom, Mary and Anna have three. The rest of us have two points.

Best I can tell, all of us with two points are eliminated. Luke and Mom look to be virtually eliminated, also. That leaves a field of Caleb, Colin, Laura, Mary, and Anna.

12 comments:

Luke Murphy said...

Yup, Mom and I are definitely eliminated. I wouldn't be if it weren't for Caleb picking the Angels....garrrrrr.

If the Angels win the WS, Caleb wins.

If the Angels lose the WS to the Phillies, Caleb wins.

If the Angels lose the WS to the Dodgers, Caleb and Mary tie.

If Yankees win the WS over the Phillies, Colin, Laura, and Caleb tie.

If the Yankees win the WS over the Dodgers, Colin and Laura tie.

If the Yankees lose the WS to the Phillies, Caleb and Anna tie.

If the Yankees lose the WS to the Dodgers, Mary wins.

Pretending that all series are 50/50, the odds are as follows:

Caleb 54.1667%
Mary 18.75%
Colin 10.41667%
Laura 10.41667%
Anna 6.25%

Yup yup.

Dad said...

The odds were 2-to-1 that Luke would work out the odds.

Luke Murphy said...

Haha how could I help myself?

Next I'll have to figure out the actual real odds of each team winning its series based on their regular season winning percentages and input that into the calculation! I know I've done that before, but I can't really remember how....

Dad said...

when you present your stats, it's a wise idea to round all those decimal places. It makes the stats more readable and graspable. fer instance,

Caleb 54.2%
Mary 18.8%
Colin 10.4%
Laura 10.4%
Anna 6.2%

Also, it's worth pointing out that Caleb has a 75% chance of being a winner. Mary, Colin, and Laura 25%. Anna, 12.5%.

Dad said...

And, I'm trying to figure out how to state exactly what your odds express. For instance, Anna has a %12.5 chance of winning 50% of the prize, which is where 6.25% comes from. But how do you EXPRESS that with the number 6.25? I'm not sure that it is accurate to say "Anna's odds are %6.25." Right?


More later. gotta feed cows.

Dad said...

Whoops. My bad. I forgot about tiebreakers.

Dad said...

And the tiebreakers change the outcome. for instance, if the Yankees win the WS over the Phillies, caleb is eliminated by virtue of the first tiebreaker. And if the angels lose the WS to the Dodgers, Mary is the winner by virtue of the tiebreaker.

Dad said...

Should I eliminate the tiebreakers making it possible for more people to share in the prize?

Luke Murphy said...

Oh shoot, I completely forgot about the first tiebreaker, so I think all my numbers are wrong.

Luke Murphy said...

I think it makes them more graspable to not round them. Actually I calculated all those numbers in my head as fractions and just used decimals to express them that way. So 6.25% is 1/16th, and 54.1667% is 13/24ths. Maybe it's an OCD thing, but I really like exact answers (something that you usually can't get with decimals). I showed enough digits with each number to make it clear what fraction was being represented.

Luke Murphy said...

Taking the first tiebreaker into account, here's the breakdown:

If the Angels win the WS, Caleb wins.

If the Angels lose the WS to the Phillies, Caleb wins.

If the Angels lose the WS to the Dodgers, Mary wins.

If Yankees win the WS, Colin and Laura tie.

If the Yankees lose the WS to the Phillies, Anna wins.

If the Yankees lose the WS to the Dodgers, Mary wins.

Odds:

Caleb 37.5%
Mary 25.0%
Colin 12.5%
Laura 12.5%
Anna 12.5%

Much simpler.

Anonymous said...

Must admit, I'm a little dizzy after reading all that, but I like that my name stays near the top of the list - It was so difficult for me not to predict a Yankees WS win!
(Mary)