Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Forget Paris

The two auras are tied for the lead. But the L aura is in the driver's seat as she will gain two points on the A aura when Taylor departs, which may not be until the very end. How do you plan to spend your winnings, Laura?

Laura 11
Auraura 11
Luke 12
Tom 14
Cassie 14
Caleb 15

2 comments:

Luke Murphy said...

I now have one possibility out 24 of winning the competition. If Chris goes this coming week, then Elliott goes, and then Taylor wins the whole thing, I win a three way tie with Laura and Aurora because I have Katherine picked to get 2nd place. Of course, the chances of Chris getting eliminated anytime soon are very small. Oh well.

Luke Murphy said...

Okay, Laura has a 22/24 chance of winning. Aurora has a 1/24 chance to tie her and beat her. Then there is a 1/24 chance of a three way tie between me and the auras, which I would win. In every other scenario, Laura wins. If Chris survives one more week, Laura wins. The fact that Elliott survived this week basically put it in the bag for Laura. Dad picked Elliott 7, Mom picked him 6, and Caleb picked him 5. If he had gone at 5, Dad would have gained a point on Laura, Mom would have gained 2, and Caleb would've gained 3. Also, Laura had Paris picked 6, so one of the last chances for damage to be done to Laura's lead would have been for Paris to last longer. I made a table that makes it much easier to understand the standings, I'll try and post it.