Okay here's a table with probabilities of winning the AI pool and the best case scenarios for each person who entered. This way everyone will know who to cheer for. At the top I put each person's name plus how far behind Laura they will be after Taylor leaves. It does not matter when Taylor leaves. The impact will be the same no matter what because no one had him in the top 4. I also put each person's ranks for the 4 remaining contestants EXCEPT for Taylor. I apologize if there are any mistakes.
Laura (0) 3. Chris
2. Elliott
1. Katherine
22/24 chance to win
1/24 to tie and lose to Luke
1/24 to tie and lose to Aurora
Best Scenario is to win 42$ if this happens:
4. Taylor
3. Chris
2. Elliott
1. Katherine
|
Aurora (2) 4. Chris 3. Elliott
1. Katherine
1/24 to tie and lose to Luke
1/24 to tie and win
Best Scenario is to win 32$ if this happens:
4. Chris
3. Elliott
2. Taylor
1. Katherine
|
Luke (3)
4. Chris 3. Elliott
2. Katherine
1/24 to tie and win
Best Scenario is to win 26$ if this happens:
4. Chris
3. Elliott
2. Katherine
1. Taylor
|
Dad (3) 7. Elliott 4. Katherine
2. Chris
no chance to tie or win
Best Scenario is to only lose 2$ if this happens:
4. Elliott or Katherine
3. Elliott or Katherine 2. Chris or Taylor
1. Chris or Taylor
|
Mom (5)
6. Elliott
2. Chris
1. Katherine
no chance to tie or win
Best Scenario is to only lose 4$ if this happens:
4. Elliott 3. Taylor or Katherine 2. Chris or Katherine or Taylor
1. Chris or Katherine or Taylor
|
Caleb (7) 5. Elliott
3. Katherine 1. Chris
no chance to tie or win
Best Scenario is to only lose 2$ if this happens:
4. Elliott 3. Katherine 2. Taylor 1. Chris
|
This will probably come out kind of funky but hopefully it will make sense. I used the Html and it was kind of tricky.
8 comments:
Wow. I'm not sure whether I should bow before Luke's HTML abilities or before Laura's Idol-picking abilities. One or the other, anyway!
Well, I'm concerned.
Taylor
Chris
Elliot
Katherine
is so not the way its gonna go.
What will happen if its
Elliot
Katherine
Taylor
Chris
??
(My bets are on that)
I am thinking:
Elliott
Katherine
Chris
Taylor
People honestly think Taylor can win this thing? Really? He's George Mason in the Final Four. He shouldn't still be there. Even if he makes it into the top two, there's no way he wins a head-to-head with Katherine or Chris, and I wouldn't bet on him against Elliot either. He's gone third:
Elliot
Taylor
McPheever
Chris.
(why do I care? really? I shouldn't, but I do)
((Nice HTML usage, Luke.))
Well, I love the comparison to George Mason, and I'm not predicting he might win because he's the best performer or anything remotely close to that (though he just might be the most fun to watch.)
I'm predicting he might win because Dial Idol has had him in first for weeks by big margins, and because he has never been in the bottom two or three. I think he has legions of passionate fans. I just don't know who they are!
Caleb, your problem is that you base your predictions on what YOU think and know. America knows a lot less than you do, and ultimately, they decide. And they think whacky too. Just look, Carrie Underwood WON last year.
Taylor is insanely popular and is always first according to Dial Idol. He's an absolutely incredible performer with a great voice to back it up, and he has more character and originality than the other three combined, not to mention soul. Chris gets hurt by doing the same thing every week. Taylor certainly does deserve to be there he's gotten better and better every week. And I don't know how you can say George Mason shouldn't have been in the Final Four. They knocked off like, a #1 seed and a #2 seed right? Anyways, I'm just not sure if Chris can find something incredible that he hasn't done before and do it well enough to win. Also Laura I have to disagree with you on the idea that America knows much less than Caleb or any of us. I didn't watch AI last year so I can't say anything about Carrie Underwood, but I don't think that all the voters are just dumb and vote for whoever is prettiest or whatever. I definitely think sometimes it's a little random and screwy and not always perfect, but I don't think it's because the voters are stupid. But to answer Mom's questions, I kinda have a feeling that Taylor's legions of passionate fans are just plain everybody.
BTW Laura you shouldn't be concerned, as long as Chris survives to at least 3rd place, you win. And even if he doesn't, you're still the favorite to win.
I have to disagree with you that you smell like cheese.
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